The Cases for the 2011 NBA MVP

The triumphant return! Yes, after getting out of an 16-month coma, I'm finally getting back on this bloggy bandwagon.

The topic: the 2010-11 NBA Most Valuable Player race. The media (read: ESPN, Yahoo, Fox Sports, CBS Sports) seems to be raving about how Derrick Rose is undoubtedly the season's MVP, and for the most part I've believed them. But two things I saw today made me take a second look.

The first was a video clip from yesterday's The Herd with Colin Cowherd, where Colin makes a decent case for LeBron James for MVP over Derrick Rose. To sum up, better defensive impact, better plus-minus, more emphasis on Tom Thibodeau's defensive philosphy, less credit to the Bulls having a better record than the Heat. All good points, and I'll even throw in two sabermetric measurements: better PER (27.0 to 23.4), better Win Shares (14.0 to 11.5).

Side note: If you can't tell, I REALLY like basketball-reference.com

To this effect, I somewhat agree with Cowherd. A vote for Derrick Rose is a vote more for the story than the Derrick Rose himself. Rose's dynamic increase in 3-point shooting, driving more to the basket (and thus making more SportsCenter Top 10-worthy plays), and embracing the role of putting his team on his back. Couple that with the Bulls serge to the top of the Eastern Conference standings, and you have a story that can only be described as a media darling.

The second link that caught my eye was John Hollinger's piece (sorry if you're not an ESPN Insider subscriber) on how Derrick Rose is much more replaceable than someone like Dwight Howard. Hollinger brought up the plus-minus and the PER stats (figures, since PER is a stat Hollinger himself invented) and how nothing stands out from Rose as MVP-quality, and concludes that Dwight Howard should be MVP based on the irreplacablity he brings to the Magic.

Being as it was that I was at work at the time (and writing something there would be less conspicuous than either here or my Facebook page), I wrote the following:

"

I'll point to a reason why Rose is more valuable is than Howard. When in the clutch, the Magic go to Howard a significant amount less than the Bulls go to Rose. According to 82games.com, Howard is *49th* in points per 48 min of Clutch Time (defined as 4th qtr/OT, less than 5 min, neither team leading by more than 5 points), with 25.0 pp48. Derrick Rose on the other hand not only has a significantly higher scoring per 48 min of Clutch Time, but is .3 ast away from averaging a triple double (43.2-11.3-9.7).

"

Derrick Rose will ultimately win the MVP for the following reasons:

• The Bulls are significantly better this season and have outperformed almost all expectations set forth at the beginning of the season
• LeBron James's tarnished public image after the Decision, as well as the fact that he's the two-time reigning MVP and NBA fans (and media) have gotten bored with the story of LeBron being the best player in the league
• Dwight Howard is good for a highlight dunk on offense per night and that's about it. He is a definite liability at the foul line, and his crunch time numbers are comparably worse than his superstar contemporaries. The fans (and media) also severely underrate defense on an individual level, so Howard's defensive prowess--10.2 rpg just on defense (2nd in NBA), 2.4 bpg (3rd) and 94.4 defensive rating (1st)--goes unnoticed for the most part.

EDIT: Bill Simmons wrote an column the day after I posted this and explained my point 10 times better than I did. So much for my astute basketball analysis.

Not in the mood to root for a 6-6 season

Currently sitting at 3-6, my Illini have for the second consecutive season take the long road down the toilet bowl. What grinds my gears is that I hear people that still have the hope of becoming bowl eligible by going 6-6. Nevermind the fact that we will need wins against Northwestern (6-4), at Cincinnati (9-0), and Fresno State (6-3) to get to 6-6, which won't happen (repeat....WON'T happen), I'm talking about there being a sense of accomplishment of going 6-6.

This is what the over-population of bowls does to us. Yeah, there's a bunch of money going around and that's all well and good, but can you really feel good about making the postseason by have a .500 record? And what if you go to a bowl with a 6-6 record and lose? That means you end the season with a losing record. That should mean that your season was somewhat of a disappointment. And yet you went to a bowl. I just feel that there's something wrong with that.

Even in the case of Illinois, one of our wins (and ONLY one up until 2 weeks ago) was against Division I-AA Illinois State. So even if we win out, that would put our record at 5-6 against I-A opponents.

Ok, I'm done ranting. I'll close by saying so much for the last year of Juice-to-Benn. Hopefully OC Mike Schultz will realize once Juice graduates and all he has is the less mobile Jacob Charest (who by the way looked pretty good against Minnesota), he'll stop calling all those stupid QB draws and throw the damn ball downfield.

NFL Week 9 Power Rankings

Nothing much to say, I'll just give the rankings. This week was tougher, because I had to move team that were on a bye, which is against my style.

Notes:

• The top 5 stayed the same, just the Steelers and Pats flipped 4 and 5.
• Bucs off the schnide and move all of one spot up to 30.
• My Bears fall once again from 15 to 17
• I continue to wonder how high the Bengals can go (currently 6, from 9 last week)
• Is this the Chargers team everyone was expecting in the preseason (12 up from 17)
• Giants (15) would win against the Jets (16) in the Mediocre New York Teams Bowl
• Titans (24) now 2-0 with Vince Young at starter. They'll move up a bit more if a win comes against Buffalo (25) next week
• New Toilet Bowl front-runners: Lions (31) vs. Browns (32)

Rank	Team	Last Week
1	Saints (8-0)	1
2	Colts (8-0)	2
3	Steelers (6-2)	3
4	Patriots (6-2)	5
5	Vikings (7-1)	4
6	Bengals (6-2)	9
7	Broncos (6-2)	6
8	Falcons (5-3)	8
9	Cowboys (6-2)	13
10	Eagles (5-3)	7
11	Texans (5-4)	11
12	Chargers (5-3)	17
13	Cardinals (5-3)	16
14	Ravens (4-4)	10
15	Giants (5-4)	12
16	Jets (4-4)	18
17	Bears (4-4)	15
18	49ers (3-5)	14
19	Dolphins (3-5)	20
20	Packers (4-4)	19
21	Panthers (3-5)	21
22	Jaguars (4-4)	24
23	Seahawks (3-5)	23
24	Titans (2-6)	26
25	Bills (3-5)	22
26	Redskins (2-5)	25
27	Raiders (2-6)	28
28	Chiefs (1-7)	27
29	Rams (1-7)	29
30	Buccaneers (1-7)	31
31	Lions (1-7)	30
32	Browns (1-7)	32

2009: Year of the Offense (NFL Power Rankings Week 8)

As I watched the Saints beat the Falcons 35-27 on this past weeks MNF, I couldn't help think of 2008 Oklahoma football. The whole attitude of "We're gonna put up a ton of points, try to keep up." And not only that, but the fact that their defense forced 3 interceptions out of the usually efficient Matt Ryan. At the halfway point of the regular season, the Saints are, at least in my opinion, the definite front-runner for the Super Bowl.

On the other end of the ranking, the Rams (29 up from 32)finally got off the schnide, beating the almost equally bad Lions 17-10. So at least in terms of wins and losses, the '09 Rams are better than the '08 0-16 Lions. But they're still the Rams. Looking at their schedule, there's pretty much only one winnable game left (home vs. Seattle), so I would say you could pencil them in for a 2-14 season.

The Browns (32 down from 29) on the other hand, have an even easier remaining schedule than the Rams, but have about an equal chance of going 2-14. Of eight games remaining, four of them are against teams ranked 24th or below according to this weeks power rankings (@Det, @KC, v.Oak, v.Jax). Although I couldn't tell you which one it would come from (my guess would be the home against Oakland game), but can't be more than one win coming from these four. There offense can only be described as anemic. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan called a pretty good game against the Bears, allowing only 2 touchdowns in 5 red zone trips.

The Texans (11 up from 18 last week) are quietly 5-3 behind the 7-0 Colts, and if the season ended today, would have their first ever playoff appearance. It's really the definition of under the radar, with all the attention on Indy and Peyton Manning's MVP-type season. Matt Schaub is passing at a 66.4% clip, for 16 TD, 7 INT, and a 100.5 rating. Who is this 100.5 rating ahead of? Tom Brady (99.9), Tony Romo (96.8), Carson Palmer (89.2), and Eli Manning (86.4). I'm not sure Houston will be able to ride Schaub's arm all season, with a run game only posting 92.5 yards per game (28th in the NFL), but it will be interesting to watch.

The rest of the rankings:

Rank	Team	Last Week
1	Saints (7-0)	1
2	Colts (7-0)	2
3	Steelers (5-2)	4
4	Vikings (7-1)	5
5	Patriots (5-2)	6
6	Broncos (6-1)	3
7	Eagles (5-2)	10
8	Falcons (4-3)	7
9	Bengals (5-2)	8
10	Ravens (4-3)	12
11	Texans (5-3)	18
12	Giants (5-3)	9
13	Cowboys (5-2)	15
14	49ers (3-4)	14
15	Bears (4-3)	19
16	Cardinals (4-3)	11
17	Chargers (4-3)	17
18	Jets (4-4)	13
19	Packers (4-3)	16
20	Dolphins (3-4)	20
21	Panthers (3-4)	24
22	Bills (3-5)	21
23	Seahawks (2-5)	22
24	Jaguars (3-4)	23
25	Redskins (2-5)	25
26	Titans (1-6)	30
27	Chiefs (1-6)	27
28	Raiders (2-6)	26
29	Rams (1-7)	32
30	Lions (1-6)	28
31	Buccaneers (0-7)	31
32	Browns (1-7)	29